Model Evaluation — Gee's Betting Predictor
Probability-model evaluation on recent finished matches

Overall Summary

Window: 2025-08-01 → 2026-04-10

Matches evaluated
5343
Avg predicted goals (μH+μA)
2.734
Avg actual goals
2.747
1X2 accuracy (argmax)
50.5%
BTTS accuracy (0.5)
59.0%
Over 2.5 accuracy (0.5)
62.3%

By League

LeagueMatchesAvg predicted goalsAvg actual goals1X2 accBTTS accO2.5 acc
ENG13102.7202.72949.7%60.6%58.7%
ENG24912.5742.58246.2%58.9%61.5%
ENG34892.5792.58549.7%59.1%59.9%
ENG44992.5292.53551.1%57.3%60.1%
ESP13012.6722.67852.8%54.2%61.1%
ESP23752.6032.60847.7%58.1%61.1%
FRA12532.7722.77955.7%55.3%63.6%
FRA22662.4122.44047.4%56.8%63.2%
GER12533.1953.20955.3%61.3%68.4%
GER22542.9162.91351.6%58.3%65.0%
ITA13112.4332.44155.0%58.8%60.1%
ITA23302.5512.55547.9%54.2%60.6%
NED12623.1683.18751.1%69.8%67.9%
NED23533.1333.21048.4%62.9%63.7%
SCO11922.6842.69351.0%67.2%60.9%
SCO21592.4332.43444.7%52.2%54.1%
SCO31243.3453.34751.6%53.2%70.2%
SCO41213.7583.76063.6%66.9%74.4%